Professor Steve Peers,
University of Essex
Today’s papers bring another story
that the UK might be planning to breach the Brexit withdrawal
agreement – including the report that the new Attorney-General Suella
Braverman is poised to attempt to justify this legally. So what happens if the
UK (or the EU) breaches the withdrawal agreement is not a hypothetical issue. I’ve
previously discussed the dispute
settlement rules in the agreement, as well as the Withdrawal
Agreement Act giving effect to the treaty in the UK, but it’s useful to
bring the key issues together, and also to look at the issues from the point of
view of international law. This blog
post summarises in turn the dispute settlement provisions of the withdrawal
agreement and the rules on termination etc of treaties in international law,
discussing the interaction between them. (Update, Feb 24 2020: I've summarised the main points of this blog post in a Twitter thread)
A few basic parameters first.
It’s likely that any (alleged) breach of the withdrawal agreement would have
political consequences as well as face legal action. Political consequences might
include not only reaction from the EU, but reluctance of the US Congress,
concerned about the position of Ireland, to agree to the legislation
implementing a US/UK trade deal. Which of the two would be most important is
hard to guess in advance. It’s also harder to guess the route that the
political aspects of the dispute would take, as compared to the legal route,
which in principle follows a set of rules laid down in advance. Also the two
routes will overlap: as discussed below, there’s political discretion as to
whether and how to pursue legal proceedings.
Second, international law aims
for treaties to remain in force if possible. A breach of a treaty by one side
does not trigger its automatic collapse, or even an automatic reciprocal breach
by the other party. The goal is to resolve disputes about treaties, not
terminate them with every passing spaff.
Third, it’s not just the view of
the parties to the agreement (the UK and EU) that will be relevant. Arguments
about the breach of the treaty can be brought via the courts of both sides by
individuals; and even the termination of the treaty could be challenged via the
national courts and the CJEU, at least on the EU side.
Fourth, the withdrawal agreement
is distinct from the political declaration on the future relationship
(discussed here),
which is not binding as such. While the withdrawal agreement does require the
parties to negotiate their future relationship in good faith, it might be
difficult to establish a breach of such a vague obligation. The withdrawal
agreement, including in particular the provisions on citizens’ rights (discussed
here)
and the Northern Ireland protocol, is also distinct from any failure to
negotiate any treaties on the future relationship: in the event that negotiations
on future treaties between the UK and EU are unsuccessful, this does not lead
to automatic termination of the withdrawal agreement.
Finally, I am not assuming that
the UK government has breached or will breach the withdrawal agreement, just
discussing what might happen if it did from a (mainly) legal perspective.
Recent statements by the UK government refusing to carry out checks in the
Irish Sea have not been framed as an
intention to breach the agreement, and the relevant part of the treaty doesn’t
apply yet, so can’t yet be breached in practice. Although the title of this blog
post focusses on the UK, because it’s the UK government’s recent statements
that have caused some people to doubt its intentions to apply the withdrawal
agreement, it’s also possible that the EU might breach the withdrawal
agreement. The blog post therefore applies equally to any breach that might be
committed on the EU side.
It’s obviously relevant that, as
things stand, the UK has passed an Act of Parliament to give effect to the withdrawal
agreement in domestic law. While a further Act of Parliament could amend the
current Act in order to give effect to an intention to breach the agreement,
there’s no proposal to do so at present. Any secondary legislation or
government action in breach of the agreement could be struck down by the
courts; although the government has indicated an intention to restrain judicial
review of government action, it has not put its intentions into effect yet.
(While the recent Withdrawal Agreement Act gives the executive powers to direct
the judiciary how to interpret retained EU law, such powers do not apply to the withdrawal agreement
itself).
Dispute settlement and the withdrawal agreement: an overview
There are two distinct parts to
the withdrawal agreement (and the UK legislation giving effect to it fully
reflects this). During the transition period (discussed here),
applying to the end of 2020 unless the two sides agree to an extension of one
or two years (which the UK currently opposes in principle), substantive EU law
as such, including all the usual rules of CJEU jurisdiction (references from
national courts on the interpretation of EU law, Commission infringement
actions for alleged breach of EU law) still apply to the UK. There’s no
provision to reduce the transition period, either unilaterally or bilaterally,
whether as a ‘punishment’ for not complying with the agreement or for any other
reason.
After the end of
the transition period, things change significantly. Most substantive EU law
stops applying to the UK, along with most CJEU jurisdiction. There are special
rules for cases pending at the end of the transition period, along with pending
proceedings that might lead to litigation later. There is also special jurisdiction for the CJEU over citizens’ rights (for eight
years after the end of the transition period), for disputes over EU budget
legislation, and for cases concerning parts of the Irish border
protocol and the whole protocol on UK army bases in Cyprus.
Furthermore, the main dispute settlement
system then also kicks in. It provides for disputes on the interpretation of
the agreement between the two sides to go to arbitration, if they cannot be
settled by negotiation. There’s nothing
in the agreement to rule out parallel cases under national and EU courts on the
one hand, and the dispute settlement system on the other.
There’s a general obligation for the parties
to stick to the processes in the withdrawal agreement to settle disputes about
that agreement (Article 168, which applies from Brexit day already):
For any dispute between the Union
and the United Kingdom arising under this Agreement, the Union and the United
Kingdom shall only have recourse to the procedures provided for in this Agreement.
If a dispute is not settled after
three months of consultation, either side may request an arbitration panel to
be set up. The two sides could jointly agree to start arbitration even before
that point. The panel will consist of five arbitrators, from a list of 25 to be
drawn up jointly (the EU and UK have not agreed this list yet). It must be set
up within 15 days of the request to set it up. If the two sides cannot agree on
a list of arbitrators, or the arbitrators who will serve on a particular case,
there are tie-break rules. So it will not be possible to paralyse the dispute
settlement system by refusing to agree on these names. The arbitration panel
must give a ruling within 12 months. If it agrees to a request to give its
ruling urgently, that deadline is reduced to six months.
If a dispute raises questions of
EU law (which is likely as regards citizens’ rights in particular), the
arbitrators must ask the CJEU to rule on it. The CJEU’s judgment will bind the
arbitrators. Asking the CJEU to rule on the EU law stops the clock on the
deadline for the arbitrators to give their ruling.
An arbitration decision is
binding on both sides. But when does it have to be complied by, and what
happens if it isn’t? If the arbitrators have determined a breach of the
agreement, the losing party has 30 days to notify the complainant of how long
it thinks it needs to implement the ruling. If the complainant is unsatisfied
by this, the issue of how long is necessary to comply with the ruling can go
back to arbitration.
At the end of the deadline to
comply with the ruling, if the winning party is unsatisfied with what the
losing party has done to comply with the ruling, it can go back to the
arbitrators to ask if the losing party has properly complied with it. The CJEU
might again be asked to rule on an issue of EU law.
If the arbitrators rule that the
losing party has not complied with the prior ruling, then at the request of the
winning party, they may impose a ‘lump sum or penalty payment’ on the losing
party. The arbitrators must consider ‘the seriousness of the non-compliance and
underlying breach of obligation, the duration of the non-compliance and
underlying breach of obligation’ when deciding how big the financial penalty
should be.
If the losing party refuses to
pay up after one month, or refuses to comply with the ruling confirming its
non-compliance with the first ruling after six months, further sanctions might
apply. The winning party can suspend any part of its obligations under the
withdrawal agreement other than the citizens’ rights part,
or under another treaty as agreed between the two sides (obviously, no such
other treaties exist yet). This suspension has to be ‘proportionate’, and must
take into account ‘the gravity of the breach and the rights in question’. If
the losing party thinks that the suspension is disproportionate, it can ask the
arbitrators to rule on the point within 10 days; the suspension is postponed
from taking effect until the arbitrators rule on the point.
Suspensions are meant to be
temporary until the losing party complies with its obligations, or the two
sides agree to settle the overall dispute. If the losing party claims later on
that it is now complying with its obligations and the winning party disagrees,
the arbitrators can be asked to rule on the point; again the CJEU could be
involved if there is an EU law issue. If it’s agreed, or the arbitrators rule,
that the losing party is now complying with its obligations, the financial
penalties or suspension of obligations by the winning party have to end.
As we can see, the dispute
settlement system is not a means to terminate the withdrawal agreement. Even if
part of the agreement is suspended by one side, the citizens’ rights provisions
cannot be suspended. The intention is that any suspension or financial penalty
is temporary, until the party breaching the agreement complies with its
obligations. This suggests that termination is not a possible remedy – as does
the provision stating that the parties must settle disputes in accordance with the agreement.
Also, as noted above, the dispute
settlement system co-exists with some jurisdiction for the CJEU (as distinct
from the CJEU jurisdiction within the
dispute settlement system), as well as possible litigation in national courts.
Traditionally, the CJEU has said that WTO dispute settlement rulings do not
form part of EU domestic law, since the EU institutions preserve their
political discretion whether to comply with WTO dispute settlement rulings or
face proportionate suspension of trade from the winning party under the WTO
rules – which are broadly similar to the dispute settlement system in the
withdrawal agreement. On the other hand, the big difference between the WTO and
withdrawal agreement dispute settlement systems is that the CJEU must be
involved under the withdrawal agreement, where there is an issue of EU law.
Whether that is enough to convince the CJEU that it should take a different
approach remains to be seen.
For the UK, the Withdrawal
Agreement Act makes no specific reference to dispute settlement rulings forming
part of UK law or not. The UK’s ‘dualist’ approach to international treaties
(treaties do not form part of domestic law unless Parliament says otherwise)
would suggest that they do not form part of UK law, unless it could be argued
that Parliament’s implementation of the withdrawal agreement in domestic law
was implicitly intended to apply to dispute settlement rulings too. Also, given
that the CJEU still has jurisdiction to rule on citizens’ rights via the UK
courts for awhile yet, the approach that the CJEU takes to the legal effect of
the dispute settlement system is relevant to the UK as far as EU citizens are
concerned.
Termination of treaties
As it relates to treaties,
international law has two sources: customary international law and the Vienna
Convention of the Law of Treaties (VCLT). The VCLT sought to codify the
customary rules but differs in some respects. Some EU countries have not
ratified the VCLT; nor has the EU, as the Convention is open to States only.
The starting point in the VCLT is
that the validity of a treaty or a State’s consent to be bound by it can only
be impeached under the VCLT. Termination, suspension, denunciation or
withdrawal can only take place under the treaty or the VCLT. Other
international law still applies between the parties even if the treaty no
longer does.
Denouncing, withdrawing from or
suspending a treaty (as provided for in that treaty, expressly or by
implication) must apply to the whole treaty unless the treaty otherwise
provides. Invalidating, terminating, withdrawing from or suspending a treaty as
provided for in the VCLT must apply to the whole treaty, except (among other
exceptions) if there is a ‘material breach’ of the treaty, or if the ground for
termination etc relates to certain parts of the treaty and they are severable
from the others and they were not an ‘essential basis’ of the consent to the
treaty. A State loses its ‘right to invoke a ground for invalidating,
terminating, withdrawing from or suspending the operation of a treaty’ if it
agrees expressly that the treaty is valid or remains in force, or its conduct
suggests the same.
The conclusion of a treaty can be
invalid where a State’s consent to be bound was very obviously in violation of
its internal law, if an error in a treaty was an ‘essential basis’ the consent
to be bound, by fraud by another negotiating State, corruption of the State’s representative
procured directly or indirectly by another negotiating State, or coercion (acts
or threats against the State’s representative, or the threat or use of force against
the State in violation of the UN Charter). A treaty is void if it conflicts
with ‘a peremptory norm of general international law (“jus cogens”)’.
States can terminate or withdraw
from a treaty only in accordance with its provisions or consent of the parties.
If a treaty does not provide for termination, denunciation or withdrawal, a
State cannot denounce or withdraw from it unless either: ‘(a) it is established
that the parties intended to admit the possibility of denunciation or
withdrawal; or (b) a right of denunciation or withdrawal may be implied by the
nature of the treaty.’ Twelve months’ notice to leave is required in that case.
As for suspension of a treaty,
this is possible ‘in conformity with the provisions of the treaty’ or if all
the parties consent. Either termination or suspension is possible in the event
of a ‘material breach’ by one party, which ‘entitles’ the other party ‘to
invoke the breach as a ground for terminating the treaty or suspending its
operation in whole or in part’. The VCLT defines a ‘material breach’ of a
treaty as ‘(a) a repudiation of the treaty not sanctioned by the present
Convention; or (b) the violation of a provision essential to the accomplishment
of the object or purpose of the treaty’. But all this is ‘without prejudice to
any provision in the treaty applicable in the event of a breach’ and does ‘not
apply to provisions relating to the protection of the human person contained in
treaties of a humanitarian character, in particular to provisions prohibiting
any form of reprisals against persons protected by such treaties’.
A party can also terminate or
withdraw from a treaty due to the ‘impossibility’ of applying it if that ‘results
from the permanent disappearance or destruction of an object indispensable for
the execution of the treaty’, but this cannot be invoked if the impossibility
was caused by the party which wants to escape its obligations. Termination,
withdrawal or suspension could also follow a ‘fundamental change of
circumstances’ since the treaty was concluded, if it was ‘not foreseen by the
parties’, if the original circumstances were an ‘essential basis of the consent
of the parties to be bound by the treaty’ and ‘the effect of the change is
radically to transform the extent of obligations still to be performed under
the treaty’. Again, this cannot be invoked if the change in circumstances was
caused by the party wanting to end its obligations.
The VCLT also regulates the
process of termination or other forms of ending a treaty. A party seeking to
end a treaty must give the other party three months’ notice. It can then
proceed as planned if there’s no objection. But if there is an objection, the
parties must try to find a solution. This does not affect anything in force
regarding dispute settlement between the parties, so it is obviously possible
that either the EU or UK would invoke the dispute settlement provisions in the
withdrawal agreement.
If there is no negotiated solution
within 12 months from raising the objection, one party may ask the International
Court of Justice to rule, or both can ‘agree to submit the dispute to
arbitration’, or the conciliation process set up by the VCLT itself might apply.
The process of termination etc must be in writing and communicated formally,
and can be revoked at any time before it takes effect.
As for the consequences of
termination etc, an invalid treaty is void and has not legal force. In case of
termination, ‘[u]nless the treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise
agree’, the parties have no further obligation to perform the treaty, but this
‘does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties
created through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination’.
As for suspension, ‘[u]nless the
treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise agree’, suspension means
that the treaty does not apply ‘during the period of the suspension’ and ‘does
not otherwise affect the legal relations between the parties established by the
treaty’. The parties must ‘refrain from acts tending to obstruct the resumption
of the operation of the treaty’. As noted already, however, the withdrawal
agreement has specific provisions on suspension.
In general, the various
references in the VCLT to suspension and termination of a treaty unless
the treaty otherwise provides need to be read in light of the rules
in the withdrawal agreement itself, as summarised in the dispute settlement
section above. These rule out dealing with disputes otherwise than in
accordance with the treaty, allow for suspension as a possible outcome of the
dispute settlement process except for the citizens’ rights chapter,
and make no mention of termination of the withdrawal agreement, referring
instead to the ‘temporary’ nature of partial suspension or financial penalties.
The only reference to termination of the withdrawal agreement is in the Irish
protocol, which provides (in Article 18 of the protocol) for the unilateral
termination of part of that protocol (not the whole
withdrawal agreement) in the event that it lacks continued consent in Northern
Ireland, following a particular detailed procedure in that protocol. One can
therefore argue that termination of the entire withdrawal agreement in response
to a breach of it is therefore ruled out by the agreement itself.
In the alternative, what happens
if the EU or UK believe that it is still possible to terminate the entire
withdrawal agreement on the grounds set out in the VCLT? Even if actions by one
side are arguably a ‘material breach’ of the withdrawal agreement as defined by
the VCLT, it’s important to remember that invoking that breach in order to
terminate that treaty is an option: as pointed out at the
outset, a breach of a treaty by one side does not automatically terminate or
suspend that treaty. So in the event,
for instance, of a breach of the Irish protocol by the UK, the EU might judge
that it would be unwise to invoke its right to terminate the withdrawal
agreement, as that would (among other things) throw the rights of EU citizens
in the UK under the proverbial bus.
What about the role of
individuals in all this? More than you might think, at least on the EU side.
The international law rules on termination of treaties have been applied by the
CJEU in the context of cases brought by individuals. In Racke,
the EEC (as it was then) terminated the EEC/Yugoslavia cooperation treaty
immediately (rather than in accordance with the terms of that treaty) on
grounds of a fundamental change in circumstances, when the Yugoslav war broke
out. An importer of wine from Yugoslavia, being affected by the termination of
the treaty, challenged the EEC’s decision in the German courts, which asked the
CJEU if the EEC’s termination of the treaty was valid.
According to the CJEU, ‘even
though the Vienna Convention does not bind either the Community or all its
Member States, a series of its provisions, including Article 62 [on change in
circumstances], reflect the rules of international law which lay down, subject
to certain conditions, the principle that a change of circumstances may entail
the lapse or suspension of a treaty.’ The International Court of Justice had
ruled already that on this point, the VCLT ‘may in many respects be considered
as a codification of existing customary law on the subject of the termination
of a treaty relationship on account of change of circumstances’.
Next, the Court asserted that it
had jurisdiction to rule on the validity of an EEC act in light of the rules of
public international law. Before it
applied those rules, it insisted that the rules in the treaty which the
importer sought to invoke had to confer rights on individuals. It found that
they did, based on its usual test for ‘direct effect’ of an international
treaty in EEC (now EU) law. (This test should easily be satisfied as regards
the citizens’ rights provisions of the withdrawal agreement).
The Court then observed that
international treaties concluded by the EEC (now EU) form an integral part of
EU law, and that if the termination of the treaty were invalid, the company
would still have rights regarding the import of Yugoslavian wines. So the EU has to ‘respect international law in
the exercise of its powers’ and ‘is therefore required to comply with the rules
of customary international law when adopting a regulation suspending the trade
concessions granted by, or by virtue of, an agreement which it has concluded
with a non-member country’. On that basis ‘[i]t follows that the rules of
customary international law concerning the termination and the suspension of
treaty relations by reason of a fundamental change of circumstances are binding
upon the Community institutions and form part of theCommunity legal order.’
Applying these rules, the Court
noted that international law was based on compliance with treaties (the pacta
sunt servanda principle), ‘which constitutes a fundamental principle of
any legal order and, in particular, the international legal order. Applied to
international law, that principle requires that every treaty be binding upon the
parties to it and be performed by them in good faith (see Article 26 of the
Vienna Convention).’ Its importance had been further underlined by case law of
the International Court of Justice, ruling that 'the stability of treaty
relations requires that the plea of fundamental change of circumstances be
applied only in exceptional cases‘.
Individuals could therefore
invoke ‘obligations deriving from rules of customary international law which govern
the termination and suspension of treaty relations’ to challenge the EU’s
termination of a treaty. (Note that the Court did not confine itself to the ‘fundamental
change in circumstances’ rule here). However, since the rules in question were
complex and imprecise, the Court limited its judicial review to whether ‘the Council
made manifest errors of assessment concerning the conditions for applying those
rules’. It decided that the civil war in Yugoslavia met the conditions to
justify terminating the treaty.
As for application of the
procedural rules for terminating treaties in the VCLT (ie sufficient notice and
consultation), the CJEU thought that prior warnings of termination were
sufficient, and that ‘[e]vven if such declarations do not satisfy the formal
requirements laid down by’ the VCLT, ‘the specific procedural requirements
there laid down do not form part of customary international law.’
The Court came back to these
procedural requirements in the recent well-known judgment in Wightman
(discussed here),
on the issue of whether the UK could unilaterally revoke its notification to
leave the EU. In the Court’s view, its various reasons for ruling that unilateral
revocation was possible were ‘corroborated’ by the provisions of the VCLT, ‘which
was taken into account in the preparatory work for the Treaty establishing a Constitution
for Europe’ (which later became Article 50 TEU). So the ‘clear and
unconditional’ possibility in the VCLT to revoke a notification of withdrawal
from a treaty before it takes effect supported the view that the Article 50
notification could be revoked too.
How would this work in practice
for the withdrawal agreement? If the EU terminated or suspended the agreement,
anyone who argued that their rights conferred by the agreement (UK citizens in
the EU, or traders with Northern Ireland, for instance) were affected as a result
could bring a challenge to the EU’s decisions, arguing that they were in
violation of public international law generally and/or the withdrawal agreement
in particular. A direct challenge before the EU courts would likely lack
standing, but a challenge via the national courts (as in Racke), which could request the CJEU to rule on the issue, probably
would not. Challenges concerning the Brexit process and withdrawal agreement
are hardly hypothetical, as we have seen over the last two years.
Even if suspension or termination
is valid, there are specific issues relating to citizens’ rights. As we have
seen, suspension of the agreement expressly cannot affect
them. And while the VCLT provisions concerning retention of rights in the event
of termination of a treaty, or the ban on reprisals in the event that a treaty of
a ‘humanitarian character’ is terminated for a material breach, arguably do not
literally cover those covered by the citizens’ rights rules, it could be argued
that in conjunction with the EU law principle of legitimate expectations, such
rights cannot be removed.
What about the UK side? Public
international law rules do not form part of the domestic legal order. But there
are domestic legal and political issues nonetheless. In the event that the government
aims to breach or terminate the withdrawal agreement by primary legislation,
the House of Lords can delay it by up to a year. It rarely uses such powers,
but it could be argued that there’s a ‘reverse Salisbury convention’ justifying
it doing so when a government explicitly aims to reverse a commitment in its election manifesto – throwing its own ‘oven-ready
deal’ in the bin. If the government aims to breach or terminate the withdrawal
agreement by secondary legislation or executive action, there could be legal
challenges on the basis that the secondary legislation is ultra vires the Withdrawal Agreement Act, or that executive action
cannot simply suspend rights which are guaranteed by an Act of Parliament – leading
to litigation which we might dub ‘Miller III’. But this brings us back to the
government’s reported intention to nobble the judges.
Barnard & Peers: chapter 27
Photo credit: dw.com


