tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8704899696538705849.post7139019142304515654..comments2024-03-28T02:32:17.979-07:00Comments on EU Law Analysis: Is Brexit inevitable? The UK’s EU membership after the General Election Steve Peershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05869161329197244113noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8704899696538705849.post-39102664494144802152015-08-20T04:53:33.313-07:002015-08-20T04:53:33.313-07:00Good piece:much more forthcoming than many City la...Good piece:much more forthcoming than many City law firms on the subject: <br /><br /> http://www.dominiccarman.com/2015/03/brexit-effect-on-law-firms/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8704899696538705849.post-66831280317583615602015-05-09T01:06:14.473-07:002015-05-09T01:06:14.473-07:00I am relatively optimistic that the majority will ...I am relatively optimistic that the majority will vote for staying in the EU, but it depends on a few factors. Most importantly, Cameron will need to understand that a clear Yes to the EU vote is not only good for his friends in the economy, but also that it gives him an enormously tactical edge over UKIP in the next years to come: UKIP's argument to be representing the silent majority will not work any more. If Cameron's government stops using immigration as a scapegoat and starts pointing out the economic dangers of leaving in the EU for the next 2 years (which they can, as they have no election to win), there is little chance of a Brexit.<br /><br />He also needs to be careful in the renegotiation. Another rejection for another bold move to change the free movement of workers single handedly against the will of 27 other member states is not going to look good, neither for him nor for the EU.<br /><br />The press also has an enormously huge roll to play. We saw in this election how powerful it still is - "if you vote Labour, you'll end up with a Scottish dictatorship" was definitely one of the important reasons for the surprise Tory win.<br /><br />And, most importantly, father coincidence needs to be on our side. I'm sure that research can be done that proves how the "No to the EU" votes in the polls correlate to bad news about the Euro crisis. The "Yes" side only really gained traction since Greece and Ireland stopped dominating the UK's headline.Tobias Kliemhttp://tobiaskliem.denoreply@blogger.com